Nick Uva

The Wall Street Journal spells it out for you. When lower-income Americans got the same access to credit that others had, what was the result?

Debt = The New Heroin.

Robert Fisk talks about plans in Tuesday's Independent to move away from using the dollar for oil trading. Supposedly in cahoots are the oil-wealthy Arab states as well as China, Russia, Japan, and France.

If this were to take place rapidly the shockwaves would be tremendous. We could expect other commodities to follow suit and be traded in whatever new unit would take its place. Would America keep a vastly-devalued dollar or buy in at unfavorable terms into the new currency? In either case we could expect to see huge price increases in anything "hard" such as gold, silver, oil, and industrial metals. The US government would have no choice but to stop borrowing like a fool and make real cuts in spending. By that I do not mean cuts in the rate of increase in spending - I mean real dollar cuts! This will inevitably create the kinds of social dislocations not seen in the US since 1865, or earlier.

On the other hand, a world in which an America is brought down a peg or two will not be a pleasant place. Look for old alliances of powers to be revived and new ones to form, made more complex and terrifying by the modern ability of medium-sized powers (and annoying but determined small ones) to hurl death itself thousands of miles away from their borders.

These days were inevitable. In 1945 it is safe to say that the US had 90% of world GDP. Such a situation - and the prosperity and advantages it engendered - could never be sustained indefinitely. Still, it is worth remembering and cheering ourselves, if only slightly, that America has a $14 Trillion economy - far more than China and Japan combined. Indeed, the US economy is easily three times that of Japan. Nor does America face the daunting problems of Europe, China and Japan as those three civilizations contemplate the folly of their simply failing to breed.

If we can rediscover vision, will, and a return to republican principles (note to nervous friends: I did not say Republican principles) then America will continue to enjoy freedom and prosperity.

If not, I hope you are honing up on your Mandarin.

But isn't he right?

Five years ago, the Hildebrandt family of New Richmond, Wis., was juggling more than $100,000 in credit card and personal debt. Through frugality, determination and hard work, they are now -- other than a mortgage -- debt-free.

At the time, Russell and Kandy Hildebrandts' credit card balances totaled about $89,000, and they owed $17,000 to a family member. While they were current on all the payments, the card companies had begun raising their interest rates, adding hundreds to their minimum monthly payments. Kandy acknowledges that they presented a higher credit risk, given how their balances had ballooned. Even so, with the bump in the required payments, covering the monthly payments was a struggle. "We had to change," Kandy says.

The Chinese Ministry of Finance said Tuesday that it would issue 6 billion yuan worth of government bonds in Hong Kong, a major step to internationalize its currency at a time of concern about the dollar.

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Kin Cheung/Associated Press

This is the first time that government bonds, comparable to U.S. Treasury securities, are to be issued. Above, a Bank of China in Hong Kong.

The yuan bond issue, the equivalent of $879 million, will “promote the yuan in neighboring countries and improve the yuan’s international status,” the ministry said on its Web site.

“The first step toward internationalization is regionalization,” Shi Lei, a currency analyst at Bank of China in Beijing, said during an interview. “China wants to develop the offshore market in Hong Kong.”

While domestic banks like Bank of China and the Export-Import Bank of China have issued yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong for a couple of years at the encouragement of Beijing, this is the first time that government bonds, comparable to U.S. Treasury securities, are to be issued. The sale is set for Sept. 28.

In July, the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, started a program for local companies to settle trade in yuan, but it has so far spurred little trade. Zhi Ming Zhang, an analyst at HSBC in Hong Kong, said the government bond issue might show foreign investors they could rely on the yuan.

“If I’m doing trade with China, where am I going to park this money?” Mr. Zhi asked, referring to the yuan. The yuan-bond market needs security and liquidity to make such settlements attractive, he said, and government bonds will provide security and a pricing benchmark. The next step, he added, would be to increase the number of Chinese issuers and investors in the yuan.

Experts estimate that China holds about 75 percent of its $2 trillion in foreign reserves in dollar-denominated assets, but since the global financial crisis began, that position has made Beijing uneasy. Since the beginning of 2007, the dollar has slipped more than 20 percent against the yen, and more than 12 percent against the yuan, and investors are concerned as the United States continues to pile up debt to finance its huge stimulus package.

In March, China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, expressed concern about the dollar’s slide and encouraged the United States to ensure its stability.

While the bond issue announced Tuesday is a step toward making the yuan a global currency, the size of the sale is small compared with those of U.S. Treasury securities, and the time it will take to establish the yuan internationally remains uncertain.

“There is no timetable,” said Mr. Shi, the Bank of China analyst, adding that developing the market would take “at least three to five years.”

In another move to make the yuan accessible to investors, BOC Suisse Fund Management, Bank of China’s asset-management arm based in Geneva, said Friday that it had received approval from the Swiss financial regulator to create a new set of funds, nearly half of them denominated in the Chinese currency.

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Very clever. Not going for broke.

"In a radical report, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has said the system of currencies and capital rules which binds the world economy is not working properly, and was largely responsible for the financial and economic crises.

"It added that the present system, under which the dollar acts as the world's reserve currency , should be subject to a wholesale reconsideration."

Not a banner day for my home State of Connecticut.